the long count

There's been a lot of noise lately about the Mayan prophecy predicting the end of the world in 2012. Much of it was stirred up by a Hollywood disaster movie "2012," and as usual serious discussion of this topic has been drowned out by the howls of the ignorant and uninformed, who have (again, as usual) divided into two diametrically opposed camps: on one side people yelling "We're all gonna die!" and on the other, calmer and more skeptical ignoramuses answering "It's just a lot of superstition."

Oracles and prophecies are often, but not always, manifestations of superstition. In this case, what's actually predicted is not the death of the planet, but simply the end of a 5,125-year cycle of causes and effects which began in 3113 BCE -- roughly the time what we call civilization began -- and the beginning of a transition to something else, but we don't know what. In addition, the winter solstice of 2012 also marks the end of a "galactic day" of 26,625 years, which consists of five of the smaller 5,125-year cycles. So needless to say, 11:11 a.m. of 12/21/2012 will indeed be a momentous tick of the clock.

What we're looking at here, however, is not an event, but a process which is already underway, with the end of 2012 marking some sort of turning point in the process. Facets of it include the eclipse of communism in the late 80's and early 90's, the collapse of capitalism signaled by the global economic meltdown which began in 2008 (touched off by an almost comically fraudulent series of interlocking Ponzi schemes based on bogus real estate loans), and the termination of the age of petroleum, and with it the modern industrial age, which has been simultaneously a tremendous blessing and a foul curse for humankind.

There is ample evidence that this process is nearing some kind of culmination. Writing a little over a year ago on an economics blog called "Angry Bear," the anonymous author Rdan, after observing that the current economy is collapsed rather than experiencing the kind of downturn associated with what we've come to think of as the normal business cycle, predicts that the "solution" of propping up failed institutions with bailouts of fiat money can only end one way:

Inflation is on vacation at the moment – but it is the end game. Fiat money requires at least some net positive inflation and a determined Central Bank can Quant-Ease (plus Gov fiscal) some of our problems away – with many side effects to be sure – but someone has to go over the top rope – and it is going to be savers and not debtors.

At some point we will have what may be called A Recovery – but it will really turn out to be A Reflation and collapse again – just like in the late 1930s. Inflating our way out of trouble may also crash into Peak Oil – creating Check Mate and Lights Out.

The emphasis is mine, not Rdan's, and I would only edit that ominous prediction by changing the word "may" to "will," which brings us to the heart of the crisis. In an article which ran yesterday in a U.K. newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, we learn that "The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, the Government's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years."

The scientist and researchers from Oxford University argue that official figures are inflated because member countries of the oil cartel, OPEC, over-reported reserves in the 1980s when competing for global market share.

This does not mean we're going to wake up some morning in the near future to discover that the oil is all gone and there won't be any more gasoline. It does mean, however, that supply will be insufficient to cover demand sooner than we thought, and that spot shortages and prohibitive prices, accompanied by enormous social disruptions and disturbances exacerbated by rapid inflation, are on the near horizon. Sir David says this will be happening by 2013-2014, but considering the rapid depletion of the huge fields on which the world is most dependent -- Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Burgan in Kuwait, and (especially ominous for the U.S.) the Cantarell field in Mexico -- I would move that date slightly, back to the end of 2012 or the beginning of 2013. Starting then, gas and oil supplies will be undependable, rationing is certain, and our way of life will change because it has to.

I constantly watch the price of oil. Right now the "new normal" is $80 a barrel, which translates into three-buck gas. Next year it will go up to 90 or 100. By 2012, panic will begin to set in. It's amazing and more than a little frightening that North American and European governments are not taking this imminent catastrophe seriously enough to pay attention to it.

For a taste of what's coming in the short term, read Jim Kunstler's Predictions for 2010. In the longer run, say 2012-2025, I foresee a new world emerging out of a very bleak, very bloody birth trauma during which perhaps 13 out of every 14 of the world's seven billion people fall victim to the Four Horsemen: Famine, Pestilence, War, and Death, and the human race returns to a way of life governed by an agricultural regime based on muscle power -- the muscles of humans and draft animals -- and the one-half billion world population that way of life can support.

But hey, look on the bright side; it won't be the end of the world.