Saturday, October 03, 2015

inertia & inevitability


Kershplung -- what shocking & depressing thoughts.

I decided to follow up a conversation re: who's gonna win the 2016 by consulting w/ people in whom I have the most confidence as predicters. That would be ye high priests of ye football poole, z Vegas oddsmakers.

Mrs. Clinton has the best shot at la CasaBlanca with 8 to 11 odds, which is hard to 2 visualize unless U look at the other candidates. Twump & Jeb! R in a dead heat for nomination and WH, both w 9/2.

A better way to express it as far as I can see is 2 turn it upside-down and say their chances are 2/9, or 2X as good as a 9th. Looking at it that way, Rubio, Sanders, and Jojo Biden are all at 1/8th. But as of today, Rubio looks dead in the water, and Biden might not run. 

& that's all yr runners in both parties, basically, (between 4 & 6), cuz then then you drop all the way down to Mme. Fiorina at 18-to-1 or if you really wanna go there, to Kim Kardashian, whose chances are noted by the oddsmakers 2 B a thousand to one shot at being elected presnit. This info comes from Lost Wages on 10/1.

These oddsmakers R not always right, but they R  completely trustworthy because they do well by doing good. Their rewards, which R ample, depend on their getting it right.

Looks to me like Hillary has the inside track, at this very early time. The inertia of voters' habits and party loyalty might yet propel her (if that's the word) to the top of the heap. But a lot can happen in 14 mos as every body know. 

As of Oktober first

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